Economic shifts...

Found this in the Herald...bodes well for Alberta


The axis of influence that used to spike straight through Ontario's Golden Horseshoe made a startling shift as Central Canada started shedding manufacturing muscle while Saskatchewan roared anew and joined Alberta in a coalition of energy superpowers.

When the decade dawned, more than half of Canada's manufacturing was based in Ontario. That percentage has slipped by 10 points since 1999 to the point where Ontario's output had in 2007 already dipped to its lowest level since 2001.

At the mid-point of the decade, the numbers behind the national Gross Domestic Product made a historic realignment. For the first time ever, Alberta and B.C. combined to beat Quebec's GDP. Add the three westernmost provinces together now and their GDP trounces Quebec and all Atlantic Canada provinces while closing in fast on faltering Ontario.
An even more startling trend has emerged in the last half of the decade. Ontario, the alleged heartbeat of the national economy, started recording higher unemployment rates than the national average while the three western beacons kept their jobless numbers far lower.

It could be a blip, of course. The commodity-based western economy tends to ebb and flow with world prices for oil, potash, forestry and agricultural products.

But Doug Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, doesn't think so.

The 20-year decline in commodity prices prior to the millennium turn became a real rise against all other prices throughout this decade. The double whammy is how it hit Ontario.

"I've seen the manufacturing sector counted out before, but I suspect this one may be a little bit more structural," he says. "It looks like the currency will be relatively robust for a longer period of time. Ontario skated on side by a 60-cent currency in the '90s, but China is a much more formidable competitor now and Ontario manufacturing is moving there."

If you want to glimpse the future, Porter advises Canada to look to Alberta, B.C. and Saskatchewan. "I think they will all grow quite a bit faster than Ontario and Quebec. The big story of the past 10 years has been an economic shift to the West and we're in the middle innings of that move."
The workforce agrees and is voting with their feet.

The giant sucking sound created by people leaving Saskatchewan ended abruptly in 2007 as the province started recording net gains in population. The big loser in the net gains or loss of taxpaying residents was Ontario, where 2006 and 2007 featured a net loss of 50,000 residents. Alberta, incidentally, gained more than that many residents in 2006 alone.
Politically, it will take time to show up. If and when the next seat distribution (just what we need, more backbench MPs) is put into place, Alberta and B.C. will get a dozen more seats while Ontario lands only 10.

When that happens, The West is in politically AND economically.
Tomorrow: The merger that changed Ottawa.